Saturday 28 April 2012

#fantastic5 April 28th


Ger Stapleton ? @G_Stapleton
ANOTHER JEWEL PUNCHESTOWN 14.40

PTMAHON ? @PTMAHON
ZAKREET DONCASTER 18.40

@sambrookejames
Gulf of Naples 3.30 Ripon

@littleleics_gal
sail home 20.10 Doncaster

celebrity stand in of the day
@doyouknowme
NORTHSIDEPRINCE 19.10 DONCASTER

GREAT BLOGS TO FOLLOW
  & :-)

http://www.chutneydave.blogspot.co.uk/




Saturday 21 April 2012

FANTASTIC5 21st APRIL

@Littleleics_gal PINTURA 15.45 NEWBURY

@G_STAPLETON TRENDING 18.45 WOLVERHAMPTON

@PTMAHON VIKING WARRIOR 14.10 THIRSK

@SAMBROOKJAMES EFFIE B NOTTINGHAM 18.00

FIGHTING OUT COMPETITION FOR A PLACE IN FANTASTIC5 WE HAVE


 portrait king 3.25 ayr


QUENTIN COLLONGES - AYR - 15:25


 Highland Knight @ Newbury 15.45

Friday 13 April 2012

The Grand National 2012 my thoughts

A year has passed since we were all either cheering with joy cracking open champagne  or throwing our betting slips on the floor, I've had a good few day's over Aintree so far :) not managed to hit the jackpot yet! one or two have found one better to my dismay.  I've waited for the official going which due to more rain I'm counting on being more to the soft side tomorrow, if we encounter a sudden heatwave & the ground dries up I would stop reading now........
  Still raining? then carry on......................... A run down with a brief description of how I think the runners will do, the choice of who to back is then up-to you, obviously these are all classy horses so I wont keep repeating myself on that one, we all have trainers, jockeys we prefer but I will try not to be biased on that in all fairness until I compiled my shortlist of who I think will win I had not even looked who was riding who, I tend to do that after I've made my choices.  But then when making my choices upon seeing jockey's name can sometimes change my opinion, but I know who's riding what now so let's crack on and see how I do.
I'll also try to do the same and not be biased with the runners as so many who I like run tomorrow for the big race, my wish is that they purely all get home safe and sound both horses and jockey's that is, and that at some point during Aintree tomorrow you all bag a winner or four.

1, SYNCHRONISED, At this moment in time is the market leader to win at a price of around 8/1
The  Jonjo & McCoy combination alone is enough to back a horse! they work well together and produce some fantastic winners especially festival's and big races like the National McCoy has held the record for winners at Aintree more times than any other Jockey, no surprise's there really he knows what he's doing and how to ride potential winner.  McCoy's ridden this one to victory 5 times they Came 3rd in a 33f race a year ago, the extra distance should not be an issue, the ground the softer the better should also be in his favour, my only concern is he's ran once at Aintree from a mark he's won off before and he came 7th, not an impressive run when he's won at that distance and conditions before, if a horse doesn't like a course it wont like it full stop! it doesn't matter how many times you try and run it on the track. #nolikeynowinny
prediction unplaced.

2, BALLABRIGGS, Last years winner who i was cheering on when he came home I'd backed  it e/w and was loving it when he won, do i think he can do a repeat of that win No sadly not, and here's why, don't get me wrong this horse comes from one of my most respected yards and has a reputable Jockey on his back, the trip and course wont be an issue he's already proven that, he wont like the ground too soft however so the rain is not helping, Kelso Mar 2011 2nd rating of 150 a month later on the same mark he won the Grand National 2011, Kelso Mar 3rd 2012 rating 160 placed 4th again same race before the National and here he is he could place but my thought's are he wont win.
place claims.

3, WEIRD AL I love this beast but i don't think he has any chance of winning, one of the best horse's I like in McCain's yard it's a big ask for a horse who's never ran more than 26f , PU in the only race he's ran so far this yr and only ran 3 times last year needs to be around a rating of 152 to win and currently on 159, I have doubt's he will place let alone win.
prediction unplaced.

4, NEPTUNE COLLENGES Good Jockey / Trainer combi here I'm sure you don't need me to tell you how good Nicholls strike rate is in these races,  only ran once at Aintree when coming 3rd on Gd-sft prefers a bit of cut so should like the ground for this race, the furthest he's ran is 32f placing 6th April 2011 ground conditions could see him getting placed, but it wouldn't be on stamina in my opinion.
prediction unplaced.

5, CALGARY BAY Another respected yard and decent trainer / jockey combination in my opinion that is,
Fell last yr during this race is more of a 3 miler and prefers Cheltenham to Aintree great horse but not for this race, and the price reflects that.
prediction unplaced

6, ALFA BEAT Had a very decent career in 2010 and ran a respectable 4th over 32fl at Chelts Mar 2011, fell in a race April 2011 and seems to have lost confidence since not one I'd put my money on.
prediction unplaced

7, PLANET OF SOUND Again a respected horse never ran further than then 26f so an extra 10f is a big big ask, decent enough yard and jockey, soft ground will suit trip however doubtful in my opinion.
prediction unplaced

8, BLACK APALACHE  No secret to those who know me one of my ultimate favorite horses with this one, but on my UN-biased view my thoughts are........ recent come back after a long lay off seen a nice 2nd place in Feb 2012 25f on sft/hvy ground will relish the extra rain currently at the course, came 2nd at Aintree in 2010 UR the year before that, a feisty animal who's temperament will either let it win or lose, age I'm not going to take into account on this occasion based on the results of the Irish national, the older horse can win.
place claims - possible win.

9, DEEP PURPLE Another i really like who prefers firmer ground so i'd say it's 66/1 chance is around the correct price, fell back in Feb and not ran since so may not have the confidence or stamina to place.
prediction unplaced


10, JUNIOR OK my new grandsons namesake so I'm not being sentimental or biased here at all, Junior is definitely a winner in my eye's my grandson Junior that is, horse wise in-experienced over the distance 27f furthest ran back in 2010 , pipe is a brilliant trainer and knows what he's doing so can be respected for the yard, and indeed Junior was an elegant 2nd LTO, however he won't like the softer ground and I doubt very much he will stay. (might get egg on my face for saying that but)
prediction unplaced


11, CHICAGO GREY Now this is one stunning animal grey's are well known for having that little extra, furthest ran to date 32f twice 8th on one occasion when ground did not suit and 2nd on the other occasion both races around a yr ago, the jockey knows him well riding him a few times through his career getting back on after being UR is no easy fete, proven himself on sft,hvy and firmer ground the going will be no issue, he's 9 the age of the majority of the last 15 yrs worth of winners had a nice break not enough to be rusty but enough to be fresh, he certainly has what it takes to be in the final 3
prediction place claims - potential winner.

12, TATENEN Won twice at Aintree but that was a long time ago and over 16f, PU over 25f  i doubt will stay the trip or enjoy the softer ground.
prediction unplaced

13. SEABASS I've seen this name crop up a lot over the last few day's on twitter, i don't think anyone more then me or the female jockey riding would want to see a lady win this more than anything, he's had an amazing career to date and will love the softer ground & again the age & weight are right for trending stat's, the distance is another level if he can stay then fair play never ran at the course and only once ran 24f placing 3rd in 2010 this is an extra 12f a huge test of stamina, I would love to see him win the national but if he does I don't think it will be this year.
prediction possibility of place

14. SHAKALAKABOOMBOOM The first thing that intrigues me is that Henderson only has this one entry for the Grand National so he must think very highly of shaka, the jockey / trainer combo again second to none and B J is on a great run lately, Mr Geraghty has ridden and won on shaka, 25f is the furthest distance ridden, placing 7th over 21f at Aintree last April again too much of an ask and not one for me.
prediction unplaced.

15, WEST END ROCKER Hutchinson rode him to win here over 26f back in December a grade 1 race over 26f on heavy sluggish ground proves to some respects he's a stayer and will love the ground , unluckily he was Bd last April, this as the above is kings only entry for the race. The concerns as many others in the race not proven at the trip.
prediction place claims at best

16, ACCORDING TO PETE Right then some real meaty information for Pete go back to horse no'2 Ballabrigg's who came 2nd in the kelso race before winning the national in 2011, who came 2nd in that same race this year ;) you go it this one did at a rating of 147 runs the national off 149. he's placed at Aintree all be it that was back in 2009 unplaced when running here in 2010 possibly due to the going and did not run here in 2011, he will run well on the ground for certain and is a stayer with stamina and heart, he will love the ground and harry rode him to victory last December and earlier this yr in January, he also rode him in the Kelso race back in Feb.
Win potential definate place claims

17, ON HIS OWN Unlike Henderson & King, Mr Mullins has 3 entries in this race so he means business this year and why hot, he's a top trainer done very well in his time and continues to give us winner after winner, so which one does he have here as his best chance! considering the 3 jockey's he has chosen he has Ruby booked to ride this one not to undermine the other two but ruby's record speaks for itself even if he is not one of my favourite jockey's to follow, not raced at Aintree previously will like sft but not too sft ground PU in a 32f trip March 2011, if Mullins is going for a winner I cant see why he's booked Ruby for this one.
prediction unplaced

18, ALWAYS RIGHT Meets all the stats of trends came 3rd at 32f last yr has won on sft/hvy, PU in his last 2 runs which is a major concern after reading up it seems the PU was due t breathing issues and has since had an operation to correct that problem, horses tend to run very well if fully recovered he will definately be in the frame and stay the distance, never raced at the course but has done well at Kelso and generally horses who like it there like it here.
prediction Definate place claims possible win

19, CAPPA BLEU 3rd at the course in 2009 P Maloney has been on the last 5 of his races, 1 win 3 placed 1 PU, might find the going a little to soft depending how much it rains over night and in the morning,  trends wise he ticks boxes, may well improve for extra distance.
prediction place claims

20, RARE BOB Another who I admire and follow ran 29f in 2009 furthest since has been 26f unplaced in both, ran 3 times at the course placed twice here at much shorter distances, he will go well on the ground and likes the track has placed & won off a145 rating runs off 146 here, another stamina test for a great horse from a respected yard.
prediction possible place claims


21, ORGANISEDCONFUSION I'll be honest I don't know that much about this one looking at the yards stats there's been no win or place in the last 14 days from 9 runs, on a rating of 145 has run twice previously placing 5th and a F, never proven at the course although has won over 29f a bonus for these types of race, has also been proven on softer ground another bonus however not one which strikes any obvious - back me boxes so would be inclined to leave alone and 18/1 too short when horses with better chances are running IMO.
prediction unplaced


22, TREACLE Well we all love treacle pudding and he could well home provide fruitful, trainer stats are a negative not having a win from 8 so far in the season, keeping the best for this perhaps? came 5th at Punch May 2011 on gd ground had it been softer may well have placed or even won, has a decent jumping style from the races I have seen, ridden by Lynch back in Dec 2011 placing 2 from 26 so used to big field races, never ran at this rating before and placed 4th the only time he ran here over 24f, had it been further would have placed I'm sure.  Not one to be discounted
possible place claims.


23, THE MIDNIGHT CLUB Now here's the conclusion why I don't understand Mr Mullins putting Walsh on OHW, this horse came 6th here last year, he's also won off a rating of 145 likes softer ground then OHW, has the experience the weight and a lot on his side actually he ticks a lot of my ratings boxes, so why not put Ruby on this one?? only Mr Mullins can answer that one.
Prediction place claims

24, MON MOME National winner of 2009 Fell when going for the double in 2010 which gutted me as I thought if any horse can pull off winning the national 2 years running this one can, after the fall ran once in 2011 coming a gallant 5th, came 2nd back in Jan at Chelts but lost form a touch coming only 12th when ran in March, a little too much a little too soon maybe, also prefers better ground so cant see him placing tomorrow even with course and distance experience.
prediction unplaced

25, ARBOR SUPREME  Ran here over the last two years and fell on both occasions, not one i'd be willing to risk my £ on even from a respected yard.
prediction unplaced

26, SUNNYHILLBOY Won here over 20f in 1009 & ran a cracking race in Cheltenham back in March but that race may have taken too much out of him and it's a big ask to ask him to repeat that here, wont enjoy the softer ground even without the horrid hill, distance wise i'm pretty sure he could stay and is the same rating of 142 which he won at chelt's so not to be discounted, but given the going i'd leave alone.
prediction unplaced.

27,KILLYGLEN Will Mr Power have the power to get a winner he's a good enough jockey who's underated IMO who rode Killyglen to victory last month, concern for me is his current strike rate and the yard's is not shouting out winning claims, was here last year and traveling very well when falling near the end the ground wont be a concern & he definitely has the stamina, ticks all the trend stats too winning off the same mark LTO.
Prediction definate place & win claims.

28, QUISCOVER FONTAINE Interesting runner as the 3rd entry from the Mullins yard who prefers to run in bog conditions I know its been raining a fair bit but don't think its soggy enough for him, currently at 66/1 i'd say that reflects his price.
Prediction unplaced

29, THAWAAWAT Has ran here before 4th last yr over 20f never ran further than 24f & last 3 runs have not been too impressive.
Prediction unplaced

30, BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE Came in 2nd behind sunnyhillboy at chelts last month off the same mark of 140, fell here last yr near the start so never got chance to prove his worth, can well make up for that this year he proved to be a stayer when coming 2nd over 32f in 2010, the extra distance won't be an issue neither will be the going, ticks the trends boxes and Condon has the experience of riding him previously.
Prediction definate place claims potential winner

31, STATE OF PLAY Has not has a run since placing 4th here last yr either he will need a run or will run very well fresh and wipe the rest of the field, Even Williams has 2 running here this is the one with the better claim's, he's place here in 2010 & 2011 the distance going weights e,t,c all tick boxes, he keeps finding one to good for him and one of the older horses here today may find another to do the same, I'd love to see him win a real trier with heart with most bookies paying 5 places a definate e/w chance at odds around 50/1
Prediction definate place claims potential winner

32, SWING BILL Intriguing entry from Pipes yard I dont fancy the shorter priced stablemate and swing bill IMO does not have place claims but the intrigue of the entries and the respect from the yard keeps me coming back to him, placed 2nd in a bog of a ground back in Dec over 25f a pure test of stamina for any animal, certainly has the ability to stay IMO and at around 125/1 could be a nice priced chance from a respected yard.
Prediction interesting outsider place claims

33, POSTMASTER Gallantly won the last to races on firmer ground however fell here when running over a shorter trip and never ran further than 24f  priced around 100/1 is about right IMO
Prediction unplaced

34, GILES CROSS Ran here once in 2009 shorter trip and PU in the 4th race of his career after running 3 amazing races, has ran in some horrendous boggy conditions placing 2nd over 33f has the stamina and heart to give it his all here, won in Feb on the same mark of 138 and had a decent enough break before appearing here today, priced around 18/1 is a respectable price for a horse with place claims and win potential I'd say he will go off shorter odds.  Dartnells not had a winner in the last 14 days he could have been concentrating on prepping GC for the big one and with Paddy Brennan on-board he has every chance of doing so.
Prediction Win Claims definate place

35, MIDNIGHT HAZE Came 6th at chelts when getting outpaced he will certainly have learned something from that run and looking at the way he ran there is room for improvement, he fits a lot of the stats and trend also comes from a respected yard, his first attempt here at the course with no hill to slow him down, could go well for place money at overpriced odds which are shortening i got 125's he's now around 100/1 I like the way Quinlan rides as a jockey he's not got a great strike rate lately which may be he's just not been given the right rides.
Possible place claims at a decent price

36,VIC VENTURI I really feel for this horse he came here in 2010 & 2011 and BD on both occasions thankfully recovered well so could it be a case of 3rd time lucky, he's not had the opportunity to prove himself but he has the ability to stay if he doesn't get BD and Harry riding is a bonus who's given some cracking rides so far in his career for a new jockey, he came 12th on his last run and at 12 his age is going against him, but if he's fit enough he may just stay onto place.
Prediction possible place claims

37, IN COMPLIENCE Ran here last year finishing 13th so has the experience of the race in his favour, does tend to prefer bog type conditions so the recent rain will be an advantage, hes placed on a mark of 137 which he runs at today, he has age against him being one of the older runners may find a few too good for him but another who could creep in for a place at a big price, but I think that's wishful thinking on my part.
Prediction unplaced

38, VIKING BLOND A great animal who's placed in some tough races to date PU in heavy conditions back in Dec which tells me he's not yet got the stamina to stay the distance, he comes from a respected yard however.
Prediction unplaced

39, HELLO BUD I love him and he's going to win #thatisall..... No seriously he's a great animal he PU here last year which so made my stomach churn as he was one of the ones i had backed, (It's ok one of the others won) he came 5th in 2009 not entered but won a chase in 2010, at 14 getting a little old in the tooth now and I cant see him placing, but if he found some hidden energy and went on to win. I wouldn't mind my choices being beaten by this one, as I had a sentimental bet on him some time ago. 
Prediction unplaced

40, NEPTUNE EQUESTER At around 150/1 the Tainer Jockey combi is worth having a small e/w bet alone ( I hear giggles) came 11th on gd ground running at Ayr last yr, likes the softer ground so has that in his favour I cant see him placing given his runs but as with all Ellison runners there's always a but.
Prediction unplaced

Conclusion WIN CLAIMS
 BLACK APALACHI / CHICAGO GREY / ACCORDING TO PETE / ALWAYS RIGHT /
BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE / STATE OF PLAY / GILES CROSS the 1st three would be my choices

PLACE CLAIMS - ALL OF THE ABOVE & TREACLE/ MIDNIGHT HAZE / BALLABRIGGS / SEABASS /WEST END ROCKER / CAPA BLEU / THE MIDNIGHT CLUB again the 1st 3 selections beinh my choices of them all

INTERESTING OUTSIDERS - SWING BILL AND MIDNIGHT HAZE

So there you have it whoever you back they are all at the moment decent E/W prices

#BELUCKY









Saturday 7 April 2012

FANTASTIC5 SATURDAY APRIL 7TH


2.05 DOUBLE DEALER KEMPTON


Gulf of Naples kempton 3.15


 2.20 CORK SEANIE

@SAMBROOKJAMES
captain dunne 2.45 Musselburgh

@littleleics_gal
ESENTEPE KEMPTON 15.45

Sunday 1 April 2012

SUNDAYSLAM APRIL 1st

@tmcj Clarion Call 3.30 Ascot EW 4**** & Leceile 4.15 Limerick 5***** WIN

 
ANCIENT CROSS *** e/w 15.20 DONCASTER LECEILE**** 16.15 LIMERICK

 
Nap *** sound amigo -Doncaster 2.45 Nb** (EW) swilly ferry Doncaster 3.20

@littleleics_gal 
Nap BAWAARDI **** E/W DONCASTER 14.45 nb  KODICIL***  DONCASTER 13.35