Hi all today focus will be away from the TV races I will be looking for some value at Ayr and Chepstow will also be putting my likes into a placepot to see if we can all top up the banks for Cheltenham ;)
The first race I am hunting for a value winner is the 3:25 at Ayr And The Man is the forecast fav for the race who won here in a class 4 who do I oppose to the fav the horse in question has raced in class 2 races on hvy ground proven stamina may not be a distance winner but every horse has that chance of becoming one of those in the right race! You know yourself has won on good and good to soft he also placed 3rd on hvy going LTO which tells me this horse is classy enough to run well on any going this race is a drop in class and distance so he stands a most definate chance of getting in the top 3 given the jockey / trainer combo which has to be one of my fav's of all time they work well together and rightly so. I would also give an e/w chance to super ally who will appreciate the softer ground then the bog ran on lto and the drop in trip also with P1 which interests me
E/W
You Know Yourself
Super Ally
I shall stay at Ayr for now and hover over the whillans horse lady blue sky who placed a gallant 2nd in the last race a course winner who struggle very slightly on hvy ground the softer going will suit the current 12/1 is a huge price for a decent course horse Imo along with Mahkzoon who may well be stepping up a class but the drop in trip could well account for that ;)
E/W
Lady Blue Sky
Mahkzoon
The last leg of the pp is a 6 horse race so naturally you will go for the 1st or 2nd fav right? erm hell no read this ") Led, headed before 10th, mistake 13th, soon weakened, 6th of 9, 32l behind Nuts N Bolts (11-2) at Ayr 2m 4f hcp chs 0-140 (3) hvy in Feb." so this race is 2m I would be damn inclined to be on the 2nd fav and outsider of the race due to that reason alone!! 4f less not so heavy ground alexander trained and ridden horse seems to be race fit i will take a bit of 12/1 thank you very much
E/W
Rossini Dancer
I've decided to go for the first race at Chepstow next a tricky one to solve but hoping I can help point out a few to get the PP up to the 2nd leg at least maiden hurdles are always a nightmare to try and solve but I've studied the race for about an hour now and keep coming back to the same 2 horses. O Brians runner Perfect Candidate came 3rd on hvy going in a class 3 over this distance, the drop in class will surely put him in a decent chance of placing again in the top 3 the other which catches my eye is the Hobbs runner Nutin Fancy who has placed on hvy each time he has run at this course, with the ging being not so bog like may well just get his nose to the front for once, gets another point the because jockey takes off 3 lbs and although not one of my preferred riders he does do well round Chepstow
E/W
Perfect Candidate
Nutin Fancy
Chepstow 3.05 Maurice the athlete would be my choice of value here who loves it round this course the distance going & weights with the jockeys 7lb claim all tick a lot of boxes the last race can be excused given that race was a class 2 on desperate ground, Sarando is one I follow who will have had the few runs needed to clear away some cobwebs shown in his last race when not being disgraced placing 4th in a class 3 at Bangor Lukes ridden him a fair few times and won on him previously so knows him well enough the pt being fitted also tends to be fitted when placing or winning so will take a chance that he will like it round the course having never raced here before.
E/W
Mauricetheathlete
Sarando
My last race to cover will head to the last race at Chepstow where Massini sunset seems a safe e/w bet and can hopefully end with a winner loves it round here has the blinkers on Tom takes off 3 lb's only raced 12 days ago but that shouldnt be an issue he will win on any going when he's right and imo he will be placed, Somerby from Saddlers Wells (love this breed) and Derwen Pryde are also ones I have been following for a while who also stand decent chances its a close one to call to be fair i'd be inclined to back all 3 e/w prices allowing
E/W
Massini Sunset
Derwen Pryde
Hope you have a great day all.
The roar of Cheltenham is almost upon us :)
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