The Big One

Ok peeps we arrive at day 3 of Aintree I've not had the amount of winners I would like but just about staying in front profit wise thankfully so here are my thoughts on today!! Will post my likes for all races except the national where you get a run down of horse by horse and my top 6 to place due to BetVictor paying up for the first six home ;)  Best of luck everyone lets hope for a great days racing!!

13:45 Eduard  4th

14:15 Sire De Grugy  4th (Special Tiara won 28/1 put on twitter)

14:50 African Gold 5th & Hollywell 2nd 9/1

15:25 Battle Group 1st 7/2 & Cannington Brook  PU(also Ikarodu Road 8th & Ballyoliver 9th are overpriced)

16:15 THE BIG ONE!!

Imperial Commander love this horse but his age and weight may go against him today, impressive when 2nd to Cape LTO but Capes not done so well since then so will leave him out of the shortlist.

What A Friend PU in 2011 not one for stamina although going conditions will suit.

Weird Al Struggling when fell last year lovely horse but not one for today

Quel Esprit Mullins will be itching for a winner after losing by a nose over in Ire will aprreciate the going if takes to the course and stays will be in with a chance but a big IF

Big Fella Thanks Does ok round here will like the good to soft ground unlucky last yr to UR record in last previous to that 6 / 4 / 7 now with 3rd new trainer looked good so far could be in the places.

Seabass 3rd last year at 10,12 the extra weight at 11,6 for today IMO will be a struggle

Roberto Goldback A trainer jockey combination I love A LOT ran once here before didnt seem to like the course when beaten by follow the plan, not one that makes it to my shortlist.

SunnyhillBoy 2nd here last year likely stayer but has not shown much progression in the two races he's had since then happy to strike him off

Ballabriggs won in 2011 on good ground carrying 11.00 off a mark of 150 today carrying 11.4 off a 152 mark not one to be up front again IMO

TEAFORTHREE Ticks a lot of boxes struggled LTO due to weights a hvy going, will appreciate better ground if takes to the course has a decent chance. (Shortlisted)

Across the Bay   Strong contender if stays the trip raced here on 3 occasions placing each time, going will suit makes it to the shortlist.

Join Together Some good form at course and on going, will be a stamina test especially at weights first time over this distance watching brief for him today.

Colbert Station Decent enough jumper and had some promising races trends state not enough chase races run for this & with ?'s over course and trip big there's a big IF

ForPadyDePlasterer Nice jumper and done well here on good to soft again ?'s over whether a stayer could be in contention for a place if he stays, having had a pre-run back at the beggining of last month to blow some cobwebs away.

On His Own Being his 8th chase races trends say no F last yr which also goes against.

Joncol Trends / stats have him up there however better form on softer ground goes against todays conditons,

BALTHAZAR KING Definate stayer and worthy contender if takes to the course ground weights e,t,c all tick boxes (shortlisted)

Cappa Bleu 10TH CHASE RACE TODAY classy jumper stands a chance of placing at least after being 4th last yr on good ground the good to soft going being more suited to him, fits the bill in the weights

Oscar Time 2nd to Ballabriggs 2 years ago been racing on unsuitable ground since, back down to the same mark as 2011 on a going that suits could be a big price contender with one of the courses best jockeys onboard (longshot chance)

Always Waining  PU in 2009 carrying 11.8 but did stay on till the last carrying that weight drop in weights today is a plus likes the course will appreciate the going had a few races to get going could be IWAC

Tatenan UR last yr and not shown much promise since, going will suit but thats about it not one I'd have in my top ten (so will probably go on to win!!)

TREACLE Impressive on boggy ground over 3m 2f LTO tells me he's a stayer hampered and fell here last year, possibility only 3 weeks since last run is a big ask, one to watch for inplay betting.

Lost Glory fits some trend stats but due to not having a race since last October will probably need to run and a big ask for first race after a break.

Swing Bill 4 races here during career not done well in any of them.  Not one for todays race IMO

Saint Are Does well in chases but seems not to be a stayer given performances at chelt no stamina shown. appears to prefer good ground.

Chicago Grey BD early in last years race a stayer and competative at the weights, definate place contender

Quiscover Fontaine As with the other mullins outsider a watching brief for inplay betting, could go well if takes to the track having never been given the chance to prove himself when F last yr.

Rare Bob Not a stayer from form shown so far decent mark and weights but a trip to far IMO.

The Rainbow Hunter Prominant chaser and definate place chances if takes to course and stays the distance. fits a lot of trends and age, weights all get a tick decent jockey onboard to help him round.

Because I Could'nt See UR last yr F the year previous to that he's not the best jumper and one to easily dismiss.

Harry The Viking Started of career looking very promising then had a disappointing 4 runs in the last year, stamina & jumping concerns.

Mr Moonshine Really like Sues yard although she's not been doing to well as of late, and her best stable jockey is on her other runner, easy to strike off no stamina form but will appreciate the going could sneak a place if gets lucky.

Mumbles Head Decent horse however not the most fluent of jumpers which can be his downfall easy to discount.

Ninetieth Minute Taffe loves a winner and he has a decent horse with this one, if he takes to the fences and course could be IWAC

Auroras Encore Won the John Smiths Chase back in 2008 at 50/1 definate stayer and decent jumper, first attempt at the National conditions will suit could run well at a nice price. WINNER 66/1

Tarquinas Appreciates softer ground big ask to get round today.

Any Currency Another horse I like a lot will stay if in the mood jumping can let him down at times but places chances at a big price.

Major Malarky Staying wont be an issue with him can be an untidy jumper at times but if takes to the course could do well at a price with conditions to suit.

SOLL lightly raced a big ask here but a decent horse place claims if stays and takes to the course.

VIKING BLOND As I recall I was on him last yr when he fell at the first! jumping has improved since then, will appreciate the going has a lot to prove but could be in the mix.

Ok so to summarise you want a runner either that's held up in the back or up in front who will stay in front, the trick is not to get caught up in the middle and closed in by other runners! they need room to jump and be able to jump well, however much I would love to see Imperial Commander win my heads telling me to leave him alone and just hope he gets home safe, as with all the other horses and riders today,  So I said I'd narrow it to my final 6 with a fair few In With A Chance runners and a couple of decent longshots (for place chances) there HAS been a bit of  Eeenie Meenie Miini Mo and a bit more narrowing down to get to these

TEA FOR THREE 3rd 10/1
BALTHAZAR KING 15th
CHICAGO GREY PU
ACROSS THE BAY 14th
OSCAR TIME 4th 80/1
CAPPA BLEU 2nd 12/1

17:10 Meganisi  2nd 22/1

17:45 Vago Collenges 2nd 14/1